976
ACUS11 KWNS 192326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192326
INZ000-200100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
VALID 192326Z - 200100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH #10 CONTINUES UNTIL 0200 UTC. A SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH IN FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM, AND HAS A HISTORY OF ROTATION AND
BRIEF TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH #10 IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, WITH A HISTORY OF ROTATION AND
TORNADO PRODUCTION. WHILE FURTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR, VWP
PROFILES FROM KIND SHOW STRONG CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPH IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT CONTINUED MESOCYCLONE AND
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT, WITH VALUES IN THE 0-500M LAYER 120 M2/S2. EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PROFILES FROM KLVX
STILL SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL LONGEVITY.
HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW FAR EASTWARD CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED GIVEN ONLY MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 50S F. IN SPITE OF THIS, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND BUOYANCY EVIDENT IN PROXIMITY SOUNDING PROFILES, COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG KINEMATICS DISCUSSED AND HISTORY OF TORNADO PRODUCTION,
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THIS SUPERCELL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING A STRONG
TORNADO.
..HALBERT/GLEASON.. 02/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IND...
LAT...LON 38928700 38938715 38998724 39048731 39158730 39248725
39348711 39398689 39438668 39478645 39498625 39518605
39488595 39478587 39438578 39308570 39248569 39148570
39068580 39018600 38978628 38958652 38948670 38928700
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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