892
ACUS11 KWNS 200004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200003
INZ000-ILZ000-200130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE INDIANA BORDER
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
VALID 200003Z - 200130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH #10 CONTINUES UNTIL 0200 UTC. A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS ADVANCING
INTO THE WATCH AREA, AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...AS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS
WEST-NORTHWESTERN POTIONS OF WW10 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, THE
THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING TORNADOES, WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
WHILE VWPS FROM KLSX SHOWS WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS BEGINNING TO VEER
INTO MORE STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS, THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS (E.G. KILX, KVWX) STILL SHOW STRONG CURVATURE
OF THE HODOGRAPH IN THE LOW LEVELS. BUOYANCY REMAINS RELATIVELY
MODEST, BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH OBSERVED KINEMATICS, THE ENVIRONMENT
COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE AND ENTER THE WATCH AREA. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS LONGEVITY GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS -- PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY TRACKED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR SCANS MAY INDICATE SOME
DOWN-TRENDING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING (POTENTIALLY DUE
TO POOR THERMODYNAMICS). STILL, THE ENVIRONMENT DOES SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LONG-LIVED/MATURE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
..HALBERT/GLEASON.. 02/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38448865 38598869 38758877 38818897 38928913 39028914
39228907 39708862 39838821 39808764 39538731 39258723
39038715 38858716 38678750 38568794 38458837 38448854
38448865
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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