437
ACUS11 KWNS 201828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201827
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-202300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT/NH/MA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 201827Z - 202300Z
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND, WITH OCCASIONAL OBSERVATIONS OF HEAVY SNOW NOTED EARLIER
FROM ALBANY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MA/CT. THIS WINTER PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF DEEP ASCENT DRIVEN BY A FAVORABLE
OVERLAP OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, IN
ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF DEEP ASCENT AND WINTER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TERRAIN-FAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER, STRONG ASCENT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPES WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. SOME
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION, WHERE ASCENT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS WITH TIME BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHERE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NY, NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO.
..DEAN.. 02/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42677083 42097133 42287270 42877393 43417507 43697595
44177608 44417585 44937509 44597369 43967235 43527146
43267111 42677083
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