577
ACUS03 KWNS 201927
SWODY3
SPC AC 201926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
..DISCUSSION
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN US STATES AND ATLANTIC COAST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, DRYING/WARMING MID-LEVELS
AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH SHOULD
TEMPER THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SUCH THAT NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AND AN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT RESULTS IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF WA AND NORTHERN OR. STRONG ASCENT AND SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASE WITH THE NEXT UPPER-TROUGH. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR DELINEATION.
..LYONS.. 02/20/2026
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