822
ACUS11 KWNS 202142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202142
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-210215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NY INTO VT/NH/SOUTHERN ME
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 202142Z - 210215Z
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SPORADIC MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST NY INTO VT/NH. FAVORABLE DEEP
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER LOWER MI WILL ALLOW THE
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHALLOW
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NY MAY HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND, BUT CONTINUED ASCENT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NORTHERN NY
INTO MUCH OF VT/NH. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS PRIOR TO CESSATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER EAST, GRADUALLY BACKING SURFACE WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING CYCLONE OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS AREAS
OF SOUTHERN ME THAT ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND EXPAND INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHERN NY INTO VT/NH
AND SOUTHERN ME THIS EVENING, BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND
NEAR/AFTER 03Z AS THE STRONGER ASCENT BEGINS TO WANE AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE.
..DEAN.. 02/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 43547302 43717453 44137493 44597502 45007488 44967303
44817150 44246991 43627003 43307033 43257071 43387163
43547302
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