491
ACUS11 KWNS 211009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211009
ALZ000-MSZ000-211245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211009Z - 211245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM
INITIALLY ELEVATED CELLS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, AS THEY
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
DISCUSSION...AS-ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/HREF AND 06Z REFS
GUIDANCE, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE MS
PORTION OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DEEP SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES, HAS AIDED IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE INSISTENT ON
A SUSTAINED ROTATING STORM OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT, AS CELLS SHIFT
INTO AL THROUGH MID-MORNING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE
FOR MID-LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER, WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CURTAIL HAIL GROWTH TO AN EXTENT. BUT WITH THE PRESENCE
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THERE IS CONCERN THAT
A NEAR-BOUNDARY SUPERCELL COULD EVENTUALLY ATTAIN SURFACE-BASED
CHARACTER BEYOND A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS AND AFTER DAYBREAK, WHICH MAY HELP MODULATE THE OVERALL
THREAT.
..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32758922 32918789 33078681 33148532 32378517 32088556
31958612 31758866 31679050 32069050 32758922
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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