655
ACUS11 KWNS 211534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211534
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AL INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND
SOUTHERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211534Z - 211730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME UPTICK IN THE LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE IS MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING,
WITH OTHER LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AL. THIS CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MS INTO
CENTRAL AL/GA AND SOUTHERN SC. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY
MODEST AT BEST, BUT MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG (WITH A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
THE FRONT) SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING.
AREA VWPS DEPICT RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER, WITH A
TENDENCY FOR THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME AND POTENTIALLY UNDERCUT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SHORT-TERM
HAZARD, THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST
EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
BRIEF-TORNADO THREAT, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL ON
MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
SAGGING FRONT.
..DEAN/HART.. 02/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31998635 32488649 33058479 33358463 33338409 33288227
33328163 33098120 32818107 32568123 32218217 31978406
31898472 31998635
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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