683
ACUS02 KWNS 211727
SWODY2
SPC AC 211725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LIGHTNING MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTH TOWARD MASSACHUSETTS AND
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW.
..DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS SEVERAL SMALLER PERTURBATIONS MERGE WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AND WESTERN US RIDGING DEVELOPS SUNDAY. A 100+ KT JET STREAK
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST. THE RESULTING MASS RESPONSE
WILL SURGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A NARROW RIBBON OF MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN
500 AND 1000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT. THIS MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FL. HOWEVER, WARMING/DRYING MID-LEVELS AND THE DEPARTURE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT LIGHTNING
COVERAGE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO LATER SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS,
INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. THE STRONG ASCENT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) AND INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES TO
SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE
NOR'EASTER AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ACROSS THE WEST, STRONG ASCENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION
ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. WHILE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
STRONG ASCENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
..LYONS.. 02/21/2026
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