767
ACUS11 KWNS 211845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211844
SCZ000-GAZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA INTO SOUTHERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211844Z - 212115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT HAS RECENTLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL GA. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR (AS
SAMPLED BY THE KJGX AND KCLX VWPS) REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, AND MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
DONWSTREAM OF THIS BOWING SEGMENT, ALONG/SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, WHILE THIS BOWING SEGMENT HAS TAKEN ON A SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHWARD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE MOST ORGANIZED PART OF THE LINE.
THIS MAY TEMPER SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT, THOUGH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF THE ONGOING BOWING
SEGMENT CAN PROPAGATE ALONG (RATHER THAN JUST NORTH OF) THE FRONT. A
BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ANY PART OF THE LINE CAN
PERSISTENTLY REMAIN ORGANIZED AND SURFACE-BASED, THOUGH GENERALLY
FRONT-PARALLEL FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL UNDERCUTTING
TREND WITH TIME.
..DEAN/HART.. 02/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31788093 31828320 31668432 31678496 32108494 32308446
32528376 32688303 33068232 32938063 32728006 32158061
31788093
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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