405
FNUS22 KWNS 211936
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW (SUNDAY) AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHERE DRY/BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS OVERLAP
RECEPTIVE FUELS. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO
EXPAND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HERE, THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM TOMORROW EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND LINGERING
BREEZINESS. WHILE AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WAS CONSIDERED, CONFIDENCE
WAS A BIT TOO LOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY.
WHILE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN A DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, WETTING
RAINFALL TODAY/TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CASTS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON FUEL RECEPTIVENESS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION, ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS
THAN 35% OVERLAPPING RECEPTIVE FUELS.
AN EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED AREAS AND/OR UPGRADES TO CRITICAL MAY
BE NEEDED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ONCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS ARE REALIZED.
..ELLIOTT.. 02/21/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0106 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC/GULF COASTS, DRY AND BREEZY
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD GET AS LOW AS 25%-30% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING DROUGHT, WITH
WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRE IGNITION AND SPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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