291
ACUS11 KWNS 230545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230545
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-231045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
VALID 230545Z - 231045Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NYC
METRO VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED 2+ INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE. GREATER RATES WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE PREVALENT, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
COAST.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 5 HOURS, THE SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS DEEPENED APPROXIMATELY 9 MB PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO PIVOT INTO THE
NYC METRO VICINITY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODERATE SNOW
OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR INTO MASSACHUSETTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED, THE
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LONG
DURATION OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. CLOSER TO
4-7 AM EST, A ZONE OF VERY FAVORABLE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 2+ INCHES PER HOUR.
GREATER SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.
BEYOND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES, SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO INCREASE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S KTS IN
LONG ISLAND. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MORE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST, BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPACTED BY STRONG WINDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING.
..WENDT.. 02/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
LAT...LON 40447378 40557434 40767470 41187464 41617431 41777408
42057317 42257271 42327212 42307140 41997061 41757033
41347048 40447378
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