763
ACUS02 KWNS 250634
SWODY2
SPC AC 250632
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
.. DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW INITIALLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY, LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG A
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT APPEARS WEAK.
.. CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS PERHAPS
AS HIGH AS MID 60FS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DECREASING TO MID
50FS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOUISIANA, WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATE A
NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST, THE AIRMASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LESSER INSTABILITY BUT
MUCH WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SAGGING SURFACE FRONT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE LIMITED OWING TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY AND THE WEAKENING NATURE
OF THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
NOTABLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS -- CONTINUING THE TREND
STARTED YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PERSISTS TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED LINEAR MODES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WHILE THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MEAGER
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY SHOULD PREVENT A WIDESPREAD EVENT, THE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MARSH.. 02/25/2026
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