912
ACUS11 KWNS 251907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251907
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251907Z - 252130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG SURFACE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT MAY
ACCOMPANY OTHERWISE WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING THE
REGION THROUGH 1-4 PM MST.
DISCUSSION...NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE DIGGING
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION, LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING QUITE STEEP NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
VICINITY. THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUING INSOLATION
AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, BENEATH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH MAY INCLUDE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 50+ KT AS LOW AS 700 MB
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DESPITE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS
AROUND 30F, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE, WHICH MAY MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT, MORE NOTABLY, THIS
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE, BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEEPER INTO THE THE GREAT PLAINS.
..KERR/SMITH.. 02/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41680410 41740279 41540154 40729960 40240029 40590235
41210409 41680410
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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