114
ACUS11 KWNS 261837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261836
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-262100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261836Z - 262100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN TO INITIATE AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH 3-4 PM CST, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL WHICH PROBABLY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WHILE
TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
DISCUSSION...INSOLATION WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED
BY LOWER TO MID 60S F DEW POINTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION,
IN THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS NOW INCREASING THROUGH
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, AND SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS EVIDENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER VICINITY.
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAPPING LAYERS
LINGER ALOFT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE MAY GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH
20-22Z, AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY. AS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO INITIATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BENEATH STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. MODEST TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SEEMS TO LIMIT
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES, AND ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS WOULD SEEM TO AWAIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE POSSIBLE UPSCALE
GROWTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
..KERR/SMITH.. 02/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34558913 34078665 33798617 32838637 32798828 32839010
33689123 34558913
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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