163
ACUS11 KWNS 262324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262323
ALZ000-MSZ000-270130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262323Z - 270130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DEPICTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EVOLVING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SURFACE
WAVE IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ATOP LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. THIS BUOYANCY, COUPLED WITH A LONG/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH (50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER GWX VWP) MAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A COUPLE ORGANIZED CELLS, TO INCLUDE MARGINAL/TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, THESE STORMS
MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE AND POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER, STORM MERGERS AND
LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO
SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL ONSET OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED/BRIEF FOR A
WATCH.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 02/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33228599 32658679 32518819 32608939 32749029 33159072
33689088 34319061 34659001 34828883 34768752 34628669
34228601 33828589 33228599
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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