953
ACUS11 KWNS 262325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262324
MSZ000-ARZ000-270100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262324Z - 270100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, WITH
SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ENTERING WHITE COUNTY
HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
SUPPORTING MODEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT, WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB ATOP A
COOLER, DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
COUPLED WITH LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7 C/KM) WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS RISK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, HOWEVER,
AS WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE LIKELY TO YIELD A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
WITH TIME. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CHALMERS/LYONS/HART.. 02/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34899236 35219215 35319192 35189158 34979120 34799096
34509084 34459078 34179097 34129124 34249175 34409216
34759234 34899236
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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