943
ACUS11 KWNS 281646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281646
FLZ000-281845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281646Z - 281845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW ORIENTED FROM CHARLOTTE TO ST. LUCIE
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 69-73 F RANGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F AT MIDDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BOTH ALONG THE SURFACE OUTFLOW AND NEAR
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION DESPITE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN POOR,
BUT GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SOME STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STORM INTERACTIONS ALSO COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE BEST AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SPATIALLY, NEAR ST. LUCIE TO BROWARD COUNTIES, AND THE NEED FOR A
WATCH IS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 02/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27238166 27728144 27808110 27838032 27467984 26567967
25917973 25588008 25618042 25828067 27238166
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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