645
ACUS01 KWNS 011626
SWODY1
SPC AC 011625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2026
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YIELDING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA.
..OKLAHOMA
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CO-KS BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO THE OZARKS BY MID EVENING. GLANCING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO THE OZARKS. A STALLED COLD FRONT
PARALLELING THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS AN AXIS OF WEAK BUOYANCY DEVELOPS WITHIN
A NARROW MOIST PLUME (50S DEG F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS AND UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE, SUPPORTING AN
ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THAT
COULD YIELD A RISK FOR HAIL/WIND DURING THE 22-04Z PERIOD.
..SOUTH FLORIDA
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING WEAK ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FL. AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROBABLE BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW IN THE SURFACE-3KM LAYER WILL LIMIT
OVERALL HODOGRAPH LENGTH BENEATH 50-KT WESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB. A
COUPLE OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH.
..SMITH/WENDT.. 03/01/2026
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