460
ACUS02 KWNS 011713
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S., IN SOUTH FLORIDA, AND FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW RECENTLY OBSERVED OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BROAD-SCALE ASCENT
COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A MODEST INFLUX OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NV
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT PEAK HEATING
ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL WY, AND WITH 30-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE, A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW OWING TO
GENERALLY MEAGER BUOYANCY PROFILES (CHARACTERIZED BY LIFTED INDICES
AROUND -1 TO -2 C) DEPICTED IN MOST MORNING GUIDANCE. FURTHER EAST,
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO AR WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
KS, MO, AND IL. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS, BUT LIMITED
ASCENT AND WEAK WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
..MOORE.. 03/01/2026
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