088
FNUS22 KWNS 011923
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WERE INTRODUCED INTO PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO AND EASTERN NM FOR MONDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER, BUT SHALLOW MOIST
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER INTO MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
D2/MONDAY. LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (LOCALLY 25 MPH) WITHIN A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NM. EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRY LINE AND SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION OF A DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON RH
REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15% BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RH AND ABUNDANT DRY FUELS WILL
BOOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY.
..LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS.
ALTHOUGH A BROAD REGION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH, FUEL RECEPTIVENESS REMAINS LIMITED,
WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE BROADER FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
..WILLIAMS.. 03/01/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0204 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVING
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE THE STRONGER FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST, DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS D2/MONDAY.
..NORTHERN NM AND FAR SOUTHERN CO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
D2/MONDAY. VERY WARM AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS (RH BELOW 15%) IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOLSTERED BY THE STRENGTHENING FLOW
ALOFT, WEST/SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN AZ, WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO. AREA FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE
FARTHER WEST WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. STILL, SOME
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NM INTO SOUTHERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POOR
ALIGNMENT OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WITH THE DRIER FUELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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