695
ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN
SOUTH FLORIDA.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL BEGIN
EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, REACHING THE
MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OK WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS/STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN
INTO OK AND SOUTHERN KS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD
HELP INCREASE BUOYANCY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. A
SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z ACROSS KS AND
INTO NORTHWEST OK AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH BROAD-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
MOST 00Z AND 12Z ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KS
BETWEEN 00-06 UTC AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THIS REGION DEPICT SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR DEEP CONVECTION, AND
STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY WIND,
THREAT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LOW WITH NAM-BASED SOLUTIONS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AND
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS OVERALL. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE QPF SIGNAL
ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR ADEQUATE
BUOYANCY/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND CONVECTIVE SIGNALS IN
EXTENDED-RANGE CAMS WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..MOORE.. 03/01/2026
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