103
ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2026
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS
MAY STILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY CHANGE MADE TO THIS OUTLOOK WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT RISK TO
PORTIONS OF OK, WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE MARGINAL RISK TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE INITIATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CURRENT OK MESONET SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A TONGUE OF 59-60 F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, TOWARD THE OKC METROPOLITAN AREA. AT LEAST
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER AND AROUND THE METRO, SUGGESTING
THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT APPRECIABLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE CURRENT MOISTURE PROFILE,
BENEATH 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL YIELD THIN
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY PROFILES, WITH 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE BY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. CURRENT INX/TLX VAD PROFILES DEPICT
HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST 0-3 KM CURVATURE, AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT ELONGATED MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, RESULTING IN APPRECIABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER
OVERALL, A FEW HAIL REPORTS AT LEAST IN THE 1-2 INCH DIAMETER RANGE
APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH AN INSTANCE
OR TWO OF HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/01/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1025 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2026/
..OKLAHOMA
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CO-KS BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO THE OZARKS BY MID EVENING. GLANCING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO THE OZARKS. A STALLED COLD FRONT
PARALLELING THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS AN AXIS OF WEAK BUOYANCY DEVELOPS WITHIN
A NARROW MOIST PLUME (50S DEG F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS AND UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE, SUPPORTING AN
ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THAT
COULD YIELD A RISK FOR HAIL/WIND DURING THE 22-04Z PERIOD.
..SOUTH FLORIDA
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING WEAK ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FL. AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROBABLE BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW IN THE SURFACE-3KM LAYER WILL LIMIT
OVERALL HODOGRAPH LENGTH BENEATH 50-KT WESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB. A
COUPLE OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH.
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