872
ACUS11 KWNS 030537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030536
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST MON MAR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...WESTERN/NORTHERN
MD...EASTERN WV...NORTHERN VA
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 030536Z - 031130Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WV/VA. A VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILE AND STRENGTHENING FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL (AS OBSERVED
IN THE KRLX VWP) ARE INDICATIVE OF A LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME
THAT WILL SUSTAIN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA/MD, EASTERN WV, AND NORTHERN
VA THAT ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING, RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.
SOME SLEET AND/OR LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY WHERE COLDER ANTECEDENT TEMPERATURES (20S F) ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS PARTS OF PA AND NORTHERN MD. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASINGLY
PROMINENT WARM NOSE IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN RATHER LIGHT, THOUGH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES
APPROACHING 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HOURS WILL SUPPORT ICE-ACCRETION
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS WHERE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GREATER RATES MAY PERSIST. SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA MAY EVENTUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT, BUT NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH DAWN FROM CENTRAL PA INTO NORTHERN VA/MD.
..DEAN.. 03/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 39177680 38547781 38187902 38007983 38168033 38418004
38807975 39227943 40507923 40747966 40868004 41118040
41348037 41678004 41747966 41577849 40377692 39837658
39507660 39177680
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