313
ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2026
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING IS BEING
AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A
BELT OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED
TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OVER THIS REGION THOUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARDS NORTHWEST TX BY THIS EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS TX/OK INTO THE OZARKS
AND SOUTHERN IL. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, INTERSECTING THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK VICINITY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION IN SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OK, WHERE MLCIN SHOULD BECOME
MINIMAL BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. HERE, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A ROBUST THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR WHILE POSING AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT. THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, GRADUALLY INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD FROM OK/KS
INTO MO AND WESTERN IL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..GLEASON/BENTLEY.. 03/03/2026
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