359
ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2026
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. A FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING IS DRAPED
FROM NEAR THE RATON MESA INTO THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO THE OZARKS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARDS NORTHWEST TX BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST FETCH INTO OK TODAY
AND INTO THE OZARKS AND PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO MIX EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, INTERSECTING THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST
TX/SOUTHWEST OK VICINITY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE INHIBITED DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MRGL RISK OWING TO BOTH CAPPING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. THE STRONGEST HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK WHERE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL BECOME WEAKENED BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE (PERHAPS FAVORING A NORTHWEST OK/SOUTHERN KS
CORRIDOR). LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD FROM OK/KS
INTO MO AND WESTERN IL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..SMITH/WENDT.. 03/03/2026
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