306
ACUS11 KWNS 032353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032352
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-040545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 032352Z - 040545Z
SUMMARY...AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN, WITH SOME SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE, WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AMIDST BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 925-700 MB
LAYER. AREA VWPS HAVE SAMPLED INCREASING 1-3 KM AGL FLOW OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS TO 40-50 KNOTS. AIDED BY ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK, THIS IS SUPPORTING
ONGOING FREEZING RAIN, WITH RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 0.06" PER 3
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE 850 MB WARM NOSE WILL EXPAND
FARTHER NORTH THIS EVENING AMIDST THE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
(UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S), EXPECTATION IS FOR FREEZING RAIN TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RATES IS ANTICIPATED ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM FAR EASTERN NEW YORK ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE STRONGEST ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO OVERLAP FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, MAXIMUM COLUMN
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL THEN ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION BY 8-10 UTC
(3-5 AM EST).
..CHALMERS/LYONS.. 03/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 41897071 41637094 41387151 41317225 41277299 41237350
41357412 41527440 42177445 42557418 42907344 43167266
43417190 43617116 43547064 43347049 43127046 42807061
42427065 42007066 41897071
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