744
ACUS01 KWNS 040049
SWODY1
SPC AC 040047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2026
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MO...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.
..01Z UPDATE - SOUTHERN PLAIN TO WESTERN IL
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LEVEL 1 - MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, HI-RES CAMS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT BIFURCATED WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE FOCUSES ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z FROM THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OK/SOUTHERN KS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE RRFS AND SOME MPAS MEMBERS ALSO INDICATED
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHWEST
OK THROUGH CENTRAL OK CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE RISK AREA
HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH A SMALL AMOUNT TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE AND THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS OF 0030Z.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
UNCHANGED FROM PRIOR OUTLOOKS, WITH OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO POSE MAINLY A HAIL RISK FROM THE OK VICINITY NORTHEAST INTO
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST IL.
..LEITMAN.. 03/04/2026
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