983
ACUS03 KWNS 040829
SWODY3
SPC AC 040828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST WED MAR 04 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. A
SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF OZARKS, MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE MOIST SECTOR BY MIDDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOIST SECTOR WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS, WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW BE
MAXIMIZED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
A WELL-DEFINED 65 TO 85 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER
MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
RECENT RUNS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLY TIMED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY
EVENING HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY IN THE 300 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG DUE TO A FOCUSED 850 MB JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUPPORTING A LARGE HAIL
AND WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL EXTEND
AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS CITY METRO, WHERE A SECONDARY LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS
MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO A SEVERE LINE
SEGMENT.
..OZARKS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F, MLCAPE IN THE 500
TO 1000 J/KG RANGE, AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. SOME MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO, SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING SECTIONS OF THE LINE,
ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES.. 03/04/2026
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