967
ACUS03 KWNS 041927
SWODY3
SPC AC 041926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST WED MAR 04 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KS/OK TO WESTERN MO...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL IS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI.
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT
IMPULSES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EJECT FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE A BACKSIDE CUTOFF LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
LOWER CO VALLEY. LEAD CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM WESTERN KS VICINITY
ACROSS IA TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS
CENTRAL OK/TX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LEAD CYCLONE.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
MOST APPRECIABLE CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN TO FLATTEN THE
PREVIOUSLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THE SPLITTING OF THE BROAD WESTERN TROUGH AND POSITIVE-TILT
OF THE LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE FEATURES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD LAG WESTWARD COMPARED TO THE TYPICALLY
OVERMIXED GFS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
KS NEAR THE TRIPLE-POINT MESOLOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPANDING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA/MO AND
SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN OK. AVAILABLE D3 CAM GUIDANCE IS MUCH
LESS ROBUST THAN PARAMETERIZED MODELS WITH THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AND
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX. WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LATITUDINALLY COMPACT
MID-LEVEL JETLET WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGHLIGHTED LEVEL 3-ENH RISK ACROSS MOST OF OK.
ACROSS EASTERN KS, NORTHERN OK, AND WESTERN MISSOURI, INITIAL
SUPERCELLS WILL PROBABLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A BROADER QLCS DURING THE
EVENING, WITH SEMI-DISCRETE ACTIVITY FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB SOUTHWESTERLIES SUGGEST DAMAGING
WIND AND QLCS TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY TOWARDS THE LAKE MI VICINITY OVERNIGHT IN A WEAK MLCAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A GENERAL
ALIGNMENT OF QLCS WITH THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR, SUGGESTING OF A
SPORADIC SEVERE THREAT MAINLY WHERE EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SURGES
CAN DEVELOP.
FARTHER SOUTH, STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE
AS THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE UNDERCUTTING FRONT IN WESTERN TX, LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NEBULOUS. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY INITIAL
UPDRAFTS, WITH SEVERE WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL NOCTURNALLY LIMITED.
..GRAMS.. 03/04/2026
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