702
ACUS11 KWNS 041928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041928
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-042200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST WED MAR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041928Z - 042200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING ON ANY POTENTIAL WATCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MO INTO EASTERN OK, CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED/DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY DCVA PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE FRONTAL SURFACE/LARGE-SCALE COLD POOL. ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THIS CONVECTION, MODEST DIURNAL HEATING (BENEATH ANVIL DEBRIS) AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMING NORTHWARD AMID STEEPENED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION, AS WELL
AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS FRINGES, TO INTENSIFY AS IT IMPINGES ON
THIS INCREASING BUOYANCY.
AROUND 40 TO 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WITH SOME INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH),
WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER,
THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORMS MAINTAINING RESIDENCE TIME IN THE
WARM SECTOR, AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TO AN
EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS, ANY STORMS THAT CAN EVOLVE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WOULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO OR TWO. TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WATCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
AND CONVECTIVE/ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36049098 35709187 35559260 35619302 35969318 36319311
37079162 37799045 38288969 38538903 38618830 38408750
37908715 37468727 37108776 36758845 36049098
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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