398
ACUS11 KWNS 042330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042330
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CST WED MAR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11...
VALID 042330Z - 050130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #11 UNTIL 0300 UTC, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 7 C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL ACROSS
WW0011, PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE AN ONGOING, ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO YIELD A MODEST INCREASE TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA POSSIBLE, THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING
HAIL/WIND THREATS, PARTICULARLY WHERE DEVELOPING STORMS ARE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN A MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE.
FARTHER NORTHEAST, A CLUSTER OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
MORE LIMITED (APPROXIMATELY 500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 6 C/KM,
RESPECTIVELY, PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS), MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER ATOP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/LYONS.. 03/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36149200 36409249 36859278 37379209 38668902 39068772
39128726 39078658 38828613 38458614 38028653 37518728
36898830 36009008 36149200
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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