807
ACUS11 KWNS 050233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050233
MOZ000-ARZ000-050400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0833 PM CST WED MAR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11...
VALID 050233Z - 050400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET COULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH HAIL/WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WW0011 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE OWING TO A STRENGTHENING, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (AS
SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWPS) AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7
C/KM) COULD SUPPORT A CONTINUING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO. WITH TIME, EXPECTED UPSCALE GROWTH OF THIS
CONVECTION INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS MAY FOSTER AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS MAY
SUPPORT A CONTINUING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT, WW0011 WILL BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
..CHALMERS/LYONS/HART.. 03/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35209323 35339395 35769439 36239443 36719448 37019424
37429346 37669261 37839166 37789113 37599073 37339052
37069054 36599098 36129150 35749203 35379270 35209323
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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