906
FNUS21 KWNS 050639
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CST THU MAR 05 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH BEHIND THIS DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH TODAY, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE, A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
(20-25 MPH), VERY LOW RH VALUES (5-15%), AND RECEPTIVE FUELS IS
EXPECTED. SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHERE A 40-50 KT 700
MB JET MAX WILL OVERLAP A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST,
SUSTAINED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL
OVERLAP LOW RH OF 10-20%, SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A POTENTIAL DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT,
PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES;
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR FARTHER
WEST AND OVERLAP AREAS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/LYONS.. 03/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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