840
ACUS48 KWNS 050938
SWOD48
SPC AC 050936
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST THU MAR 05 2026
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SUNDAY/DAY 4 AND MONDAY/DAY 5
A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE GULF COAST REGION ON SUNDAY WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVER THE TOP OF THIS
AIRMASS, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED ON BOTH DAYS,
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP SUFFICIENTLY. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
ARK-LA-TEX, WHERE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE MAXIMIZED.
..TUESDAY/DAY 6 TO THURSDAY/DAY 8
ON TUESDAY, MODEL FORECASTS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO, AND RETAIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MOIST SECTOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY ACROSS A BROAD AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS APPEARS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD HAVE A
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIMING
OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. IF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. AN ISOLATED RISK MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN U.S., AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE IS CONSIDERABLE.
..BROYLES.. 03/05/2026
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