016
FNUS21 KWNS 051545
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST THU MAR 05 2026
VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHWEST
INDICATE SOME MORNING FOG EAST OF THE DRYLINE, BUT EVIDENCE OF DRYER
AIR IS MOVING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
ADDITIONALLY, SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHTLY MORE BROAD AREA
DEVOID OF PASSING CLOUD COVER VERSUS WHAT EARLIER FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATED. MEANWHILE, FUEL CONDITIONS THOUGHT TO BE MORE MARGINAL
NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELEVATED AREA IN NEW MEXICO HAVE
ALSO SUPPORTED LARGE FIRE GROWTH OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, INDICATING
THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE ON PAR FOR TODAY'S FIRE THREAT.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY INDICATED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE FRONT RANGE SURFACE LOW AS WELL. THIS
NECESSITATED A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE CRITICAL AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE JET MAXIMUM OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1239 AM CST THU MAR 05 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH BEHIND THIS DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH TODAY, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE, A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
(20-25 MPH), VERY LOW RH VALUES (5-15%), AND RECEPTIVE FUELS IS
EXPECTED. SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHERE A 40-50 KT 700
MB JET MAX WILL OVERLAP A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST,
SUSTAINED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL
OVERLAP LOW RH OF 10-20%, SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A POTENTIAL DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT,
PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES;
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR FARTHER
WEST AND OVERLAP AREAS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page