619
ACUS01 KWNS 051959
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST THU MAR 05 2026
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, A
FEW TORNADOES, AND SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH THIS
UPDATE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONTINUED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A WARM
FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH 60F DEW
POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO TO TULSA
AND NORTHEAST OK. DEW POINTS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH FILTERED HEATING AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER. CU DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE DRYLINE IN FAR
WESTERN TX/EASTERN NM. STEADY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK, WITH BILLOW CLOUDS
DOWNSTREAM OF CAP ROCK FROM MOTLEY, CHILDRESS, AND COTTLE COUNTIES
INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL STABILITY, WHICH IS NOTED IN THE
18Z SOUNDING FROM AMA.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING BY
LATE AFTERNOON (4-6 PM CST AS MENTIONED BELOW). INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLUAR, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ENLARGE
HODOGRAPHS, WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES, WITH POTENTIAL OF
A STRONG TORNADO (EF2+).
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE LENGTH
OF THE DRYLINE INTO WEST TEXAS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK WAS MAINTAINED.
A MARGINAL RISK ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 03/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1126 AM CST THU MAR 05 2026/
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY AS A BROAD
ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA/KANSAS. A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL
ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MULTI-LAYER CLOUD COVER REMAINS SEMI-PREVALENT AT LATE MORNING BUT
PERIPHERAL GRADUAL CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER VICINITY. THE
STRONGEST HEATING/MIXING WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY ACROSS FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST TEXAS, BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT INCLUDING PARTS OF LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND
TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BORDER VICINITY. SUCH DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR BY AROUND 4PM-6PM CST AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED.
SOMEWHAT MODEST/NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A
MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVEN IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS NOT ROBUST AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH A BIT MODEST DURING TIME
OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, BUT NONETHELESS STEADILY STRENGTHENING
TOWARD/AFTER 00Z/6PM CST. THIS WILL INCLUDE ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY, POTENTIALLY UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
ALSO FOSTER ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A
SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW FOR A STRONG (EF2+) TORNADO EVEN IF A MORE
COMPLEX MODE IS EVOLVING. OVER TIME, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. FARTHER NORTH, ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO IOWA.
..OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONT, WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN SO, SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE A
FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..FLORIDA PENINSULA
BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH AND WITHIN AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME,
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S F. DESPITE THE UPPER HIGH,
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-11 OR -12C AT 500MB) WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL. SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEAR PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
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