984
ACUS11 KWNS 052047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052047
OKZ000-TXZ000-052315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CST THU MAR 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 052047Z - 052315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 22-00Z, AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS -- WHERE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPINGING
ON SHELTERED/INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS). AS DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE
IN THIS CORRIDOR, ANTECEDENT INHIBITION AT THE BASE OF THE EML
SHOULD ERODE AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME. WHILE UNCERTAIN, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONES OF SUBTLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FARTHER
NORTHEAST IN THE TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
A BIT STRONGER.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL FAVOR DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS -- GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. INITIAL
STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS, THOUGH A
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LINGERING INHIBITION DOES
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE RISK,
THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33880224 34420209 35270164 35720117 35980060 36019995
35869933 35419896 34629889 33929924 32950029 32790092
32910168 33280210 33880224
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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