341
ACUS11 KWNS 052108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052108
TXZ000-052315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CST THU MAR 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052108Z - 052315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 IN.) AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LACK OF
GREATER FORCING/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE SLOWLY MIXES EASTWARD. OVERALL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION IS WEAK AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
STORM OR TWO INITIATING/MATURING OFF OF THE TERRAIN AND/OR DRYLINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE WEAK INITIALLY, BUT SHOULD
INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE/SUSTAIN, LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS TO
2 IN.) AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN MODEST DEWPOINTS AND GENERALLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN LAST INTO EARLY EVENING,
AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS, SOME
INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD OCCUR. SUCH A SCENARIO IS
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER.
..WENDT/GUYER.. 03/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30810264 31220290 32690242 32840230 32920160 32710094
32000099 30850164 30560206 30810264
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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