906
ACUS11 KWNS 060046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060045
OKZ000-TXZ000-060245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST THU MAR 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...
VALID 060045Z - 060245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS THEY PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
OVER THE PAST HOUR AMIDST RESIDUAL CAPPING AND WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING. WHILE IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MANY SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP, THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE COMING 1-2 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL CAPPING CONTINUES
TO ERODE. AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL THEN
SUPPORT A RISK OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM AND AN INITIAL DISCRETE STORM MODE WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TO 3" IN DIAMETER. WITH TIME, A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO YIELDING ENLARGED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..CHALMERS/MOORE.. 03/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35269867 34909874 34639881 34449909 34349948 34309986
34270039 34260084 34400117 34700149 35050148 35520086
35900034 36079981 36019912 35709873 35269867
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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