113
ACUS11 KWNS 060135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060135
KSZ000-OKZ000-060300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST THU MAR 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060135Z - 060300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED TORNADO, OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCAL WATCH EXTENSIONS
AND POTENTIALLY A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE PAST HOUR,
INCLUDING A STRONGER STORM WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW0013.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE STORMS
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD GIVEN RATHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING. SHOULD STORMS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ALONG AND NORTH OF
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, THEY WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM. AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 F ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER) COUPLED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWPS MAY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED, AND LOCAL WATCH EXTENSIONS OR PERHAPS A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..CHALMERS/MOORE/HART.. 03/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37499892 37979855 38469816 38949762 39319708 39409634
39159605 38579600 38079610 37699635 37179680 36629724
36229766 35929809 35769859 35769905 35999929 36649934
36929925 37099916 37259910 37499892
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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