402
ACUS48 KWNS 060940
SWOD48
SPC AC 060938
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/MONDAY
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO
LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME, AND FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER, MODEST
FORCING AND OTHERWISE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS PRECLUDES A 15 PERCENT
DELINEATION.
..DAY 5/TUESDAY INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITHIN NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE WARM/MOIST SECTOR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MID/LOWER MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE, INFLUENCED BY THE SPLIT-FLOW UPPER TROUGHING
PATTERN. A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM OK THE MID-MS VALLEY AREA
WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, LEE
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TX AND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL BE
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, THESE SURFACE FEATURES, COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WILL
LIKELY FOSTER A BROAD AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
AS THE UPPER TROUGHS FROM DAY 5/TUESDAY CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6/WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EAST
TEXAS. SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE INCREASES DURING THIS TIME,
LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE HAS SOME OVERLAP
OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AS A RESULT, A 15 PERCENT AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED. THIS
AREA MY NEED TO SHIFT/EXPAND NORTHEAST WITH TIME DEPENDING ON TRENDS
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT CURRENTLY, IT IS UNCERTAIN IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTHEAST, PRECLUDING SEVERE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS VICINITY.
..DAYS 7-8/THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
FORECAST MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WHILE IT IS PLAUSIBLE
SOME SEVERE RISK COULD PERSIST INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON DAY 7/THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EAST, UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 03/06/2026
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