058
ACUS03 KWNS 061915
SWODY3
SPC AC 061914
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS
TO SOUTHEAST VA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
..SYNOPSIS
A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS A BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL PUSH OFF THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH FRONTOLYSIS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
..CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR SHOULD OVERLAP
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF DEPICT
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE PRESENT NEAR THE
MID-LEVEL JETLET ACROSS VA. BULK OF GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE PIEDMONT TO COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BEFORE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WANES. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK, FAVORABLE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH TRANSIENT
MID-LEVEL ROTATION. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
MAGNITUDES SEEM PLAUSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY AT LEAST 5
PERCENT TOTAL SEVERE PROBS IN THE 12Z SPC-GEFS, ALONG WITH THE 00Z
NSSL-GEFS AND BOTH NCAR-ECENS ML PRODUCTS.
..GRAMS.. 03/06/2026
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