907
ACUS11 KWNS 061950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061950
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST
IA...AND NORTHWEST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061950Z - 062215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIAL THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A
GRADUALLY INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS EVIDENT
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST MO -- WITHIN A ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED
DIURNAL HEATING AMID LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ERODE REMAINING
INHIBITION AND FAVOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON INDIVIDUAL STORM LONGEVITY
INITIALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WITH TIME,
STORMS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, WHERE SHELTERED
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND LARGER CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS
(AIDED BY A 50-KT LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY TOP 18Z SOUNDING) WILL
FAVOR AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WHILE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 40129754 40569695 41119640 41449597 41599526 41579447
41289398 40549379 39939399 39039492 38309623 37989703
37849769 37929829 38109877 38319905 38889911 39419874
39869804 40129754
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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