242
ACUS11 KWNS 062147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062147
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-070015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062147Z - 070015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN MO AND
SOUTHEASTERN KS -- ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. HERE, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AMID POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS.
WHILE A LOW-LEVEL WARM LAYER AND RELATED INHIBITION (EVIDENT IN
EARLIER NEARBY SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST PROFILES) LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION/MATURATION -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT -- THE CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION MAY
FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE-BASED, AROUND 40-50 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE RISK IN THIS
CORRIDOR, A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37929582 38539555 39269474 39649414 39739362 39609309
39309281 38809271 38019311 37219385 36939426 36929468
37069564 37479583 37929582
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page