094
ACUS11 KWNS 070344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070343
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN
IOWA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16...19...
VALID 070343Z - 070545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 16, 19 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL, WIND, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO,
PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 16 AND WW 19 FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS MOST OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND INTO WESTERN IA BEING
UNDERCUT BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS, GOES IR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES
ALONG THE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE, AND COOLING CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTED WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN IA AS WELL. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED
IN NATURE, IT REMAINS IN A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH MUCAPE REMAINING NEAR 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE
HINTS THAT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COMING HOURS - PARTICULARLY FROM
NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IA. IF SUCH CONVECTION EMERGES, THE
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT,
THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN NO SIGNS OF IMMINENT
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME.
..MOORE.. 03/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39429616 39929557 42549320 42649240 42639178 42419142
42059134 41649150 40979201 40389280 39719375 39109498
38939563 38949589 38969613 39169630 39429616
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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