294
ACUS11 KWNS 070645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070644
OKZ000-TXZ000-070845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070644Z - 070845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK, ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. A SHARPER COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CONVECTION ONGOING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST OK ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE STRONGER
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE WEAKER BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS, THOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE MAY BECOME
COMPLEX DUE TO THE EVENTUAL UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.
INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND GENERALLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AS LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS, SOME INCREASE IN
SEVERE-GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS THAT REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. A TORNADO ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUSTAINED CELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY FRONT, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT, WATCH ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 03/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32949750 32499792 31709918 30860096 30800214 31300216
32010154 33499966 34089911 34839821 35519735 35989642
35789608 35359622 34469656 33619711 32949750
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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