959
ACUS03 KWNS 070720
SWODY3
SPC AC 070719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI.
..ARKLATEX TO MISSISSIPPI
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, A SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SUBTLE. HOWEVER, FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION. FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR ALSO SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN MODEST FORCING MECHANISMS, STORM
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE AT
LEAST CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
INTO MS.
..LEITMAN.. 03/07/2026
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