963
ACUS11 KWNS 071141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071140
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-071345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/IN...WESTERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071140Z - 071345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN.
DISCUSSION...TWO NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED
WITHIN A BROADER QLCS APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EASTERNMOST OF THESE SEGMENTS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IN, WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST, AND VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED FROM THE KVWX AND KIND VWPS. RAP SOUNDINGS
(MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED SURFACE CONDITIONS) SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE HAS
RISEN INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE SEGMENT,
THOUGH SOME MLCINH REMAINS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR, THIS LINE SEGMENT COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO, IF THERE IS ANY UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND ORGANIZATION ALONG THE GUST FRONT.
FARTHER WEST, A LINE SEGMENT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WITH THIS SEGMENT,
THOUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS MOVING ALONG OR
NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW. THE KPAH VWP ALSO DEPICTS
STRONG (THOUGH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL) LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW, WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
THE NEED FOR SHORT-TERM WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ONGOING THREAT. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY UPTICK IN ORGANIZATION, ESPECIALLY IF THE ONGOING
LINE SEGMENTS PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 03/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 36949045 37129012 37368989 37818980 38108969 38088946
38258780 39098725 39748695 39858640 39938609 39928559
39898505 38718554 38098595 37668646 37268712 37048763
36858807 36758908 36808989 36849042 36949045
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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