329
ACUS11 KWNS 071757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071757
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-072000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OHIO...NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071757Z - 072000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES BY 3-5 PM EST.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION IS ONGOING, BUT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER WARMING AND MIXING WITH CONTINUING
INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK TO MODEST CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS
OF 500 J/KG, BENEATH SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN AMBIENT FLOW
INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KT.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ALONG AND
DISCRETELY AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED PRE-COLD FRONTAL
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OHIO. AS
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU THROUGH 21-22Z, DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE.
THIS MAY INCLUDE A FEW EVOLVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN AND
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LINE, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY VEERED TO A FAIRLY PROMINENT WESTERLY
COMPONENT, THE DEGREE TO WHICH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR, PARTICULARLY GIVEN
THE STILL SIZABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS.
HOWEVER, AS 850 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, VARIOUS MODEL DERIVED OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT PROFILES COULD BECOME LOCALLY CONDUCIVE TO A SUPERCELL TORNADO
THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
..KERR/GUYER.. 03/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 42537973 42127817 40797932 40018008 38738163 38358266
39088350 40548232 42537973
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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