112
ACUS03 KWNS 071932
SWODY3
SPC AC 071931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY BELT OF MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING
SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HERE, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD DEEP/RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS). THIS SHOULD
YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY BY THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL FRONTS, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS,
THOUGH SOME TORNADO RISK IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A CORRIDOR OF GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE (DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT), THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN UPGRADE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 03/07/2026
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